新形势下贸易壁垒对我国国际收支动态影响研究

Research on the Dynamic Impact of Trade Barriers on China’s Balance of Payments under the New Situation

新形势下贸易壁垒的长期性和复杂性将对我国国际收支产生重要影响。基于1998-2019年季度数据,运用SVTVP-SVAR模型实证检验贸易壁垒对我国国际收支的动态影响。研究表明:贸易壁垒频次的随机波动率具有周期性特征,同期国际收支账户下经常账户差额和金融账户差额的随机波动率增强;贸易壁垒频次对经常账户差额和金融账户差额的影响存在明显的时变效应和滞后效应,其对经常账户差额影响逐步增强、对金融账户差额影响在增强与减弱间反复、对滞后1期和滞后3期经常账户差额和金融账户差额具有显著影响;贸易壁垒频次对货物贸易差额的影响要大于对服务贸易差额的影响,贸易壁垒频次对货物贸易差额影响趋势为负,对服务贸易差额影响趋势为正;贸易壁垒频次对直接投资差额、证券投资差额和滞后1期其他投资差额影响趋势为正,对不同滞后期其他投资差额影响不同。基于以上结论,从产业转型升级、服务贸易与货物贸易协调发展、金融市场渐进开放等方面提出对策建议。

The long-term and complexity of trade barriers under the new situation will have an important impact on China’s balance of payments.Based on the quarterly data from 1998 to 2019,this paper uses the SVTVP-SVAR model to empirically test the dynamic impact of trade barriers on China’s balance of payments.The results show that:The stochastic volatility of current account and financial account differences under balance of payments accounts enhanced in the same period.The frequency of trade barriers has obvious time-varying effect and lagging effect on current account balance and financial account balance.Its influence on current account balance is gradually strengthened,the impact on financial account balance is repeated between strengthening and weakening,and the frequency of trade barriers has significant effect on current account balance and financial account balance with lag of one and three periods.Frequency of trade barriers has a greater impact on the balance of trade in goods than on the balance of trade in services.There is such a trend that the frequency of trade barriers has a negative impact on the balance of trade in goods and a positive impact on the balance of trade in services.And a trend that the frequency of trade barriers has a positive impact on the balance of direct investment and securities investment,on the balance of other investment in lag period 1.And the frequency of trade barriers has different impact on other investment in different lag periods.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of industrial transformation and upgrading,coordinated development of trade in services and goods,gradual opening of financial markets,etc.