基于影子银行视角的地方政府债务分析

An Analysis on Local Government Debt from the Perspective of Shadow Banking

运用VAR模型,通过收集2002-2017年数据,研究影子银行和地方政府债务间的关系。结果如下:无论全国还是广东、河南、陕西的影子银行和地方政府债务间均是长期稳定关系;全国、广东、河南的政府债务受影子银行影响,而影子银行变动主要是受自身的影响;陕西地方政府债务的变化主要是受自身影响,影子银行的变化也主要是受自身影响;经济发达地区(广东)的影子银行占比高于经济欠发达地区(河南和陕西)的影子银行占比,但没有超过其经济增长占比;经济不发达地区(陕西)的影子银行占比高于经济中等地区(河南)的影子银行占比,且陕西影子银行的占比超过其经济增长占比。因此,应缓解地方政府债务对影子银行的依赖性以及加强监控经济欠发达地区影子银行的风险。

The VAR model is used to study the relationship between shadow banking and local government debt by collecting data from 2002 to 2017.The results are as follows:There is a long-term stable relationship between shadow banking and local government debt in the whole country and in Guangdong,Henan and Shaanxi;The government debt of the whole country,Guangdong and Henan is affected by shadow banking,and the change of shadow banking is mainly affected by themselves;The change of local government debt in Shaanxi is mainly influenced by itself,and the change of shadow banking is also mainly influenced by itself;The proportion of shadow banking in developed areas(Guangdong)is higher than that in less developed areas(Henan and Shaanxi),but it does not exceed the proportion of economic growth;The proportion of shadow banking in economically underdeveloped area(Shaanxi)is higher than that in economically medium area(Henan),and the proportion of shadow banking in Shaanxi exceeds the proportion of economic growth.Therefore,the dependence of local government debt on shadow banking should be alleviated and the risk of monitoring shadow banking in underdeveloped areas should be strengthened.