企业管理者非理性与企业投融资行为研究——基于过度自信量化指标的实证分析

Study on the Irrationality of Enterprise Managers and the Investment and Financing Behaviors:Empirical Analysis based on Indicator of Managerial Overconfidence

采用公司"预报净利润变动幅度"指标,并与净利润同比增长率做差,得到管理者自信程度量化指标。在A股上市公司财务数据基础上,验证企业管理者自信程度与投融资决策的关系。同时考虑民营企业与国有企业在经济运行中承担决策的不同,在全样本基础上对异质性企业管理者自信程度与投融资决策的关系做进一步验证。结果表明:民营企业管理者自信程度与企业投资存在显著正向关系,而国有企业管理者自信程度与企业投资存在显著负向关系,这造成整体上管理者自信程度并不显著影响企业投资决策;此外,国有企业管理者自信程度与企业融资决策不存在显著关系,而民营企业管理者自信程度与企业留存收益存在显著正向关系,与未分配利润存在负向关系。

This study firstly constructs a managerial confidence index by forecast change range of net profit minus year-on-year growth rate of enterprise net profit;then using this index and basing on the financial data of A-share listed companies in China, it investigates the relationship between managerial confidence and enterprise investment and financing decisions. Then, considering the differences of decision-making between private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the process of economic operation, a further empirical test was done on this relationship between managerial confidence level of heterogeneous enterprises and the investment and financing decision on the basis of full sample regression. The results show that: there exists a significantly positive relationship between managerial confidence and the investment decision in non-state-owned enterprises, but negative in state-owned enterprises. The opposite effect makes the overall managerial confidence does not affect the investment decision-making. Further analysis show that no significant relations are found between managerial confidence degree and financing decisions in state-owned enterprises, but for non-state-owned enterprises, there is a significant positive relationship between managerial confidence and retained earnings, and a significant negative relationship between managerial confidence and undistributed profits.