城市化质量、城市韧性对洪涝灾害风险的影响——基于山西11个地级市面板数据

Impact of Urbanization Quality and Urban Resilience on Flood Disaster risk:Based on Panel Data of 11 Prefecture-level Cities in Shanxi

城市化进程中量的扩张与质的增长作为城市化的一体两面,在改变洪涝孕灾环境、增加人口经济暴露性的同时,也促进了城市防灾减灾基础设施的建设。城市韧性既是高质量城市化的结果,也是提升城市应对灾害风险能力的关键。基于山西省11个地级市2003-2017年的面板数据,运用计量经济学回归分析方法,论述高质量的城市化对洪涝灾害风险的减缓作用,讨论城市化质量通过城市韧性影响洪涝灾害风险的中介作用,验证省域城市尺度上城市化质量、城市韧性对洪涝灾害风险的影响效应。研究表明:高质量城市化对洪涝灾害风险有着显著的负向影响,实证区城市韧性对高质量城市化减轻洪涝灾害风险有着显著的负向中介作用。

In the process of urbanization, quantitative expansion and qualitative growth, as an integral part of urbanization, have not only changed the flood-prevention environment and increased the economic exposure of the population, but also strengthened the construction of urban disaster prevention and mitigation infrastructure. Urban resilience is not only the result of high-quality urbanization, but also the key to improving the city’s ability to respond to disaster risks. Based on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Shanxi province from 2003 to2017, using econometric regression analysis, this paper discusses the mitigation effect of high-quality urbanization on flood disaster risk, and discusses the intermediary role that impact of urbanization quality on flood disaster risk through urban resilience,and verifies the impact of urbanization quality and urban resilience on the risk of floods at the provincial city scale. The research shows that high-quality urbanization has a significant negative impact on the risk of floods and floods, and the urban resilience in the demonstration area has a significant negative mediating effect on high-quality urbanization to reduce the risk of floods and floods.