中欧班列是否改变了沿线城市的贸易方式——基于PSM-DID和SCM检验

Has China Railway Express Changed the Trade Model of Cities along the Railway:An Analysis Based on the PSM-DID and SCM

中欧班列开通以来,凭借绿色、安全、快捷的优势,已成为中西部城市通往欧洲除水路、航空外重要的运输方式。在长期的运行过程中,中欧班列也暴露出种种不足,如返程空箱率高、班列辐射不广、线路布局不合理,特别是班列沿线城市出口附加值偏低、外贸发展不平衡等问题。参考随机试验的检验方法,使用回归分析法、倾向匹配倍差法、合成控制法,得出如下结论:中欧班列对于沿线城市加工贸易额的促进作用大于一般贸易;对于起点城市的贸易促进作用大于班列途经城市。以上结论验证了沿线城市出口产品附加值价值偏低,途经城市产业参与融入全球价值链体系不足的问题,并提出提升外贸服务能力、吸引境外投资、发展跨境电商、改善境外基础设施等政策措施,为中欧班列未来线路布局和沿线城市产业高质量发展提出政策建议。

China Railway Express has been the important mode of transportation from China’s Mid-western Cities to Europe in addition to sea shipping and air services, with its advantage of green, safety and fast. During the longtime running process, some problem expose, such as high return empty rate of container,the low service capacity for surrounding regions, the unreasonable layout of rail lines, especially the low value-added exports of cities along the railway and the uneven development of international trade among cities along the railway, etc. The paper will refer the random experiment, use the methods of DID, PSM-DID and SCM and get the following the results:China Railway Express has more facilitation on processing trade than general trade;China Railway Express has higher effect on the starting cities than the passing cities. The above conclusion proves the problem of the low value-added exports of cities along the railway, and the low participation in global value chain of cities along the railway. Then a series of development strategies including the improvement of service capacity in international trade,attracting foreign investment, the development of cross-border e commerce and promoting infra-structure construction of overseas are proposed to provide decision-making reference for the reasonable layout of China Railway Express and high quality development of industry in the cities along railway.