储户预期与金融稳定

Depositor’s Expectation and Financial Stability

本文利用中国88家银行的面板数据及中国人民银行的储户问卷调查数据,研究储户对未来经济和收入感知的预期对金融稳定性的影响。研究发现,通过储户资产配置、货币政策预期与银行风险承担三个渠道储户预期水平上升有助于提高金融稳定性;机构储户对金融稳定性的边际影响高于居民储户;城市储户的预防动机需求会降低金融稳定性;从系统重要性银行角度看,储户预期对非系统重要性银行的影响更大,储户对房价信息与股市波动等信息的适应性学习会降低储户预期对金融稳定性的影响。

The authors of this paper use the panel data of 88 Chinese banks and the data of the depositor survey of the PBC to study the impact of depositor’s expectations and perceptions of future economy and income on financial stability.The results of the paper show that the rise in the level of depositor’s expectation through the three channels of depositor asset allocation, monetary policy expectation and bank’s risk-taking is helpful to improve financial stability;the marginal impact of the institutional depositor on financial stability is higher than that of the residential depositor;and the urban depositor’s preventive-motivation need will reduce financial stability;from the perspective of systemically important banks,depositor’s expectation has a greater impact on non-systemically important banks, and depositor’s adaptive learning on house price information and stock market fluctuation will reduce the impact of saver’s expectation on financial stability.