地方政府债务影响金融风险的传导机制--基于房地产市场和商业银行视角的研究

The Transmission Mechanism of Local Government Debt Affecting Financial Risk--A Study from the Perspective of Real Estate Market and Commercial Banks

本文基于房地产市场和商业银行双重视角,利用2005-2017年省级面板数据和中介效应模型,实证检验地方政府债务对金融风险的风险传递关系和传导路径。实证结果显示,地方政府债务规模扩张的财政风险转化为房地产市场风险和商业银行风险;同时,土地财政、信贷扩张和影子银行是地方政府债务风险的传导路径。为防范金融风险与化解地方政府债务风险,应降低金融部门与地方政府债务的关联,厘清金融与财政的关系。

From the perspective of real estate market and commercial banks, the authors of this paper use the 2005-2017 provincial panel data and mediation effect model to empirically test the transmission relationship and path of local government debt to financial risk. The empirical results show that the fiscal risk of local government debt expansion is transformed into the risks of real estate market and commercial banks;at the same time, land finance, credit expansion and shadow banking are the transferring paths of the risk of local government debt. In order to prevent financial risk and resolve the risk of local government debt, it’s needed to reduce the relevance between the financial sector and local government debt, clarify the relationship between finance and fiscal affairs.