广东省湛江市新型冠状病毒肺炎流行趋势的初步预测

Preliminary prediction of the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Zhanjiang,Guangdong

目的通过计算和预测广东省湛江市现阶段新型冠状病毒肺炎(Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia NCP)的基本再生数,估计和预测湛江市疫情的流行趋势,为制定有效的防控策略提供依据。方法依据广东省卫健委截至2020年2月14日24时的官方数据,构建传染病动力学SIR(Susceptible-Infected-Recovered)模型,计算现阶段新型冠状病毒肺炎基本再生数。采用指数平滑法预测基本再生数的未来趋势。结果疫情初期湛江市NCP基本再生数为1.91,并呈现波动下降的趋势。NCP疫情可能在2月下旬迎来"拐点",并从3月底开始逐渐走向消亡。结论湛江市目前的NCP疫情已得到了控制,正逐步好转。及时采取有效防控措施,能加快控制和扑灭疫情。

Objective To investigate and predict the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia(NCP)in Zhanjiang of Guangdong province by estimating and predicting the basic reproduction number of NCP,and provide evidence for formulating effective control strategy.Methods Susceptible-Infected-Recovered(SIR)model was constructed to calculate the basic production number of NCP in Zhanjiang according to the official data issued by the Guangdong Health Commission at 24:00 on February 14,2020.Exponential smoothing method was also used to predict the trend of the basic reproduction number in the future.Results At the early outbreak of NCP,the basic reproduction number of NCP in Zhanjiang was 1.91,showing a decline with fluctuation.The epidemic situation of NCP in Zhanjiang may possibly reach an"inflection point"at late February and gradually disappear in late March.Conclusion The current epidemic situation of NCP in Zhanjiang has been under control and is gradually improved.Timely and effective prevention and control measures can speed up the control and eradication of the epidemic situation.