数字化服务水平对“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的影响--基于亚洲国家的实证研究

The Impact of Digital Service Level on International Bilateral Trade along the Belt and Road--An Empirical Study Based on Asian Countries

数字技术推动的数字化服务在贸易领域的广泛渗透和应用,对全球经贸格局产生了深刻影响。本文在采用主成分分析法对"一带一路"沿线国家数字化服务水平进行评估的基础上,采用引力扩展模型对数字化服务水平对沿线国家出口所产生的影响进行实证研究,并进一步根据国家收入水平的差异进行分类实证回归发现:高收入国家和中低收入国家之间数字鸿沟明显,贸易双方的数字化服务水平提升都有助于双方贸易出口额的增长,但是数字化服务水平对不同收入水平国家出口影响是不同的。此外,FTA和ICT进口都与数字化服务水平相互作用共同促进贸易发展。本文建议,"一带一路"沿线高收入国家应该注重数字关键应用技术的发展和数字监管规则的制定,沿线中低收入国家应该注重提升数字化基础设施普及率和数字联通性水平,以提升沿线国家数字化服务水平,促进其贸易快速发展。

Digital services promoted by digital technology have had a profound impact on the global economic and trade pattern. Based on the application of principal component analysis(PCA) to the evaluation of the digital service level along the Belt and Road, this paper uses the gravitational expansion model to empirically study the impact of the digital service level on the exports of these countries, and further classifies the empirical regression according to the dif ference of the national income level. It is found that the digital divide between high-income countries and low-income countries is obvious, and the improvement of the level of digital services of both sides will contribute to the growth of both sides’ trade exports. However, the impact of digital services on the exports of countries with different income levels is different. In addition, both FTA and ICT imports interact with the level of digital services to promote trade development. At the end of this paper, it is suggested that the high income countries along the Belt and Road should pay attention to the development of digital key application technology and the formulation of digital regulatory rules. The low-income countries along the Belt and Road should pay attention to improving the popularity of digital infrastructure and the level of digital connectivity, so as to enhance the level of digital services in these countries and promote their development rapidly.