房价上涨对工业产出影响的门限效应及区域差异

Threshold effect and regional difference of the impact of house price rise on industrial output

房地产业和工业产业具有很强的关联性,房价持续上涨对工业产出的负面影响主要表现为推高用工成本、挤占资金、引发投机等三个方面,且这种影响在不同的工业化水平下存在门限效应和区域差异。基于2003-2017年31个省(市)面板数据,运用系统GMM模型进行验证,结果显示:房价上涨对工业产出已由前期的拉动作用为主转化为抑制作用为主;分区域看,中部地区受自身工业发展水平及宏观环境等因素影响,房价上涨对工业产出影响较显著,东部地区次之,西部因房价较低影响不显著;在不同的工业化水平下,房价上涨对工业产出影响存在门限值。

Real estate is closely related to industry. The continuous rises of house price adversely affect the industrial output mainly in three aspects: rise of labor cost, occupying of fund and increase of speculation. Under different levels of industrialization, there are threshold effects and regional differences. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities) from 2003 to 2017, the GMM system is used to verify the above assumptions. The results show that the impact of house price increase has changed from promoting the industrial output into restraining it. From the regional perspective, influenced by the industrial development level and macro environment, the impact of house price increase on industrial output is more significant in central region than in western area. The influence is insignificant in western region for its low house price. Under different levels of industrialization, there is a threshold for the impact of rising house prices on industrial output.