广西壮族自治区艾滋病模型及预测分析

Modeling and Predictive Analysis of AIDs in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Reigion

本文收集了2013年1月—2019年10月广西壮族自治区艾滋病确诊数及死亡率的月度数据,经过对数据的预处理、模型识别、参数估计、模型诊断和优化等分析手段,建立了相应的时间序列模型。通过建立的最优模型对广西壮族自治区艾滋病确诊数及死亡率进行了6期预测分析,并结合结论提出防控建议。结果表明,艾滋病确诊数的最优模型为ARIMA(2,1,2);死亡率可分解为线性趋势项与满足ARIMA(2,1,1)模型的随即波动项之和。利用所建模型,得出未来6个月确诊数及死亡率的预测,并根据预测结果,提出了防控建议。

After knowing the number of HIV diagnosis and mortality in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region in recent years,this paper decided to provide effective suggestions for the government to prevent and control HIV.This paper collected the monthly data of HIV diagnosis and mortality in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region from January 2013 to October 2019,and establishes the corresponding time series model by means of data preprocessing,model recognition,parameter estimation,model diagnosis and optimization.Based on the established optimal model,the diagnosis and death rate of AIDS in Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region were predicted and analyzed in 6 stages,and the prevention and control suggestions were put forward.The results showed that the number of HIV diagnoses was non-stationary,and the optimal model was ARIMA(2,1,2)after first-order difference.The mortality rate can be decomposed into the sum of the linear trend term and the random fluctuation term satisfying the ARIMA(2,1,1)model.Predictions of 85%and 90%confidence intervals for diagnoses and mortality over the next six months were also made.The number of confirmed cases remained stable from 2013 to 2019,with a downward trend expected in the next five months.The overall mortality rate will be on the rise,and it will peak at the end of the year.It is suggested that in addition to further enhancing the awareness of self-prevention and strengthening the popularization of aids-related knowledge,people should also establish and improve the detection,monitoring and treatment system to effectively combat the virus.