货币政策对资本市场的非线性效应——基于自私募股权投资经验证据的分析

Nonlinear Effect of Monetary Policy on Capital Market:Empirical Evidence from Private Equity Investment

私募股权投资是资本市场的重要组成部分,而资本市场波动对宏观经济周期有重要影响。通过构建非线性计量经济模型,本文从不同期限结构和类型的政策模式角度探索货币政策对私募股权投资的非线性影响。研究发现,短期数量型货币政策在经济高涨时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,而长期数量型货币政策在经济平稳时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,数量型货币政策对私募股权投资的影响在时间维度呈现递减趋势;短期价格型货币政策在经济萧条时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,而长期价格型货币政策在经济平稳时期对私募股权投资的调控效果更佳,价格型货币政策对私募股权投资的影响在时间维度呈现递增趋势。因此,长期价格型货币政策是我国进入经济新常态时期后的主要选择。

Private equity investment is an important part of the capital market,and the fluctuation of the capital market has an important impact on the macroeconomic cycle.By constructing a non-linear econometric model,this paper explores the non-linear impact of monetary policy on private equity investment from the perspective of different term structures and types of policy models.It is found that the short-term quantitative monetary policy has a better effect on private equity investment in the period of economic upsurge,while the long-term quantitative monetary policy has a better effect on private equity investment in the period of economic stability,and the impact of quantitative monetary policy on private equity investment shows a decreasing trend in time dimension;the effect of short-term price monetary policy on private equity investment is better in the period of economic depression,while the effect of long-term price monetary policy on private equity investment is better in the period of economic stability,and the impact of price monetary policy on private equity investment is increasing in time dimension.Therefore,long-term price monetary policy is the main choice after China enters the new normal period of economy.