带有交叉感染的狂犬病模型及其控制策略研究

Rabies dynamics model with cross infection and its control strategy

建立包括野犬、家犬和人3个群体的预测狂犬病动力学模型,采用遗传算法对模型中的感染人数与国内近20年的报告病例数据进行拟合,估出中国狂犬病在当前控制策略下的基本再生数R0≈1.075,证明模型中R0<1时无病平衡点的全局稳定性以及R0>1时模型的一致持续性.根据数值模拟结果得到根除狂犬病需要采取如下可行的措施:避免家犬与野犬之间的交叉感染;提高家犬的免疫率;对野犬进行捕杀,控制其出生数量.

A dynamic model of SEIR(susceptible,exposed,infected,recovered)rabies including three populations of wild dogs,domestic dogs and humans was established.The genetic algorithm was used to fit the number of infections in the model with the reported case data of the past 20 years,and the reproduction number of rabies was about R0≈1.075 under the present controlling policy.The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point was proved when R0<1 and the uniformly persistence of the model is given if R0>1.According to the numerical simulation results,it was necessary to adopt the following feasible measures to eradicate rabies:avoiding cross infection between domestic dogs and wild dogs,improving the immunization rate of domestic dogs,killing wild dogs to control the number of births.