软件和信息技术服务对农业经济增长的渗透效应

The Penetration Effect of Software and Information Technology Services on Agricultural Economic Growth

信息技术创新是各国作为后金融危机时代推动经济持续增长的关键引擎,对经济增长的贡献已取得共识,但对农业经济增长的影响尚缺乏实证依据。本文利用2001—2016年省级面板数据,实证分析了软件和信息技术服务业对农业经济增长的影响。研究发现:①软件和信息技术服务对农业经济增长具有正向促进作用,但在整个产业生命周期内会呈现倒U型变化;②2007年以前处于扩散初期,软件和信息技术服务对农业经济增长的渗透效应并不明显,2007年开始显著增强,但当前仍处于倒U型左边的边际递增阶段,远低于理论上最佳的拐点水平,在未来相对长一段时期内仍可为乡村振兴提供持久性新动能;③由于西部多数省份仍处于信息技术扩散初期,软件和信息技术服务对东、中部农业经济增长的渗透效应明显优于西部。

Accelerating information technology innovation has been taken as a key engine for sustained economic growth in the post-financial crisis era.Its contribution to Chinese economic growth has reached consensus,but its contribution to agricultural economic growth has not yet been supported by empirical evidence.This paper analyzes the relationship between ICT penetration and agricultural economic growth by using provincial panel data from 2001 to 2016.The study found that:①ICT has a positive penetration effect on agricultural economic growth,but it will show inverted U-shaped changes throughout the industrial life cycle.②Since it was still in the early stages of proliferation before 2007,the penetration effect of ICT on agricultural economic growth was not obvious.Since 2007,it has shown a significant increase trend.However,it is still in the marginal incremental stage on the left of the inverted U-shaped curve now,which is far lower than the best turning point theoretically.It will still provide lasting new impetus for rural revitalization in the longer term.③The penetration effect of ICT on agricultural economic growth in the east and central regions is better than that in the west,because most of the western provinces are still in the initial stage of the diffusion of ICT.