跨区域调水PPP项目收益分配研究

Research on Revenue Distribution of PPP Interregional Water Transfer Project Based on Shapley Value Method

科学合理的收益分配方案是跨区域调水PPP项目顺利实施的前提条件,为优化跨区域调水PPP项目参与各方的收益分配,分析生活用水和工业用水需求量对跨区域调水PPP项目的收益影响,通过引入恩格尔系数、霍夫曼系数预测生活用水量、工业用水量。根据供水和需水之间的供应关系,构建跨区域调水PPP项目的预期收益函数。结合跨区域调水PPP项目的特点,综合权衡风险承担度、资源投入度和贡献程度等因素对跨区域调水PPP项目参与各方收益分配的影响,引入跨区域调水PPP项目收益分配优化Shapley博弈模型。研究案例表明:通过收益预测函数计算跨区域调水PPP项目收益,其结果被用于计算各方收益更为合理,优化的Shapley收益分配模型科学合理地体现了各方投入与产出的关系。

Scientific and reasonable revenue distribution mechanism is the premise for the smooth implementation of Trans-Regional Water Diversion PPP project. In order to optimize the income distribution of all parties involved in the PPP project, the influence of domestic and industrial water demand to the income of the PPP project was analyzed and the urban domestic water consumption was predicted by introducing Engel coefficient and industrial water consumption was predicted by Hoffman coefficient. According to the relationship between water supply and water demand, the expected revenue function of PPP project for Trans-Regional Water Diversion was constructed. Combining with the characteristics of PPP project of Trans-Regional Water Diversion, the Shapley game model was introduced to optimize the income distribution of PPP project of Trans-Regional Water Diversion by comprehensively weighing the impact of risk-taking degree, resources input degree and contribution degree on the income distribution of all parties involved in PPP project of Trans-Regional Water Diversion. Finally, the results show that the established function can predict the revenue of city water supply and the result is used to calculate the revenue of each party. The optimized Shapley revenue distribution model scientifically and reasonably reflects the relationship between input and output.