“冲突”抑或“协作”——生态博弈机制下的城市开发边界划定路径

CONFLICTS OR COLLABORATION: THE PATH OF DELIMITING URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARIES BASED ON ECOLOGICAL GAME MECHANISM

自然资源紧约束增强背景下,基于生态视角划定城市开发边界的必要性已渐成共识,但既往研究较少考量生态机制用于边界设定的复杂性,即同一用地承载多样生态功能、功能间存在彼此增益的互助或此消彼长的竞争。对此,为统筹各服务功能保护与使用的均衡效益,本文通过生态系统服务(ESs)价值当量评价与协同权衡机制多元统计解析,推演较优生态博弈情景及约束条件,并交予元胞自动机(CCA)动态模拟,构建了ESs-CCA划定路径。杭州实例证明:"协作"模式限定的开发边界能精准规避高生态价值联合区域、有序释放非"冲突"低成本相交地区,科学配置自然资源"量"的价值分级和生态系统"质"的机制供给,为生态文明建设与国土空间规划编制提供技术、决策支持。

In the background of aggravated natural resource restrictions,people have reached a consensus on the necessity of delimiting urban growth boundaries (UGBs) from the ecological perspective.However,previous studies have less considered the complexity of ecological mechanisms used for UGBs delimitation,that is,the same land carries a variety of ecological functions,and there may be mutually beneficial or mutually reinforcing functions among them.In this regard,in order to coordinate the balanced benefits of protection and use of various ecosystem services (ESs),the ESs-CCA (ESs-constrained cellular automata) technical path is proposed:through the assessment of ESs values and the statistical analysis of coordination and trade-off mechanism,a better ecological game scenario and its constraints are constructed,which is then input to CCA for spatial dynamic simulation.The example of Hangzhou proves that the established UGBs by the mode of collaboration can precisely avoid the high ecological value joint area,rationally release the non-conflict low ESs cost area,and scientifically configurate the value supply of natural resource quantity and the mechanism classification of ecosystem quality.The findings and conclusions can provide technical and decision-making supports for the construction of ecological civilization and national land use planning.