基于熵权–灰色关联分析的降低区域停电损失举措研究

Research on Reducing Regional Outage Loss Based on Entropy Weight-Gray Correlation Analysis

停电损失是衡量电网经济性标准之一,合理估算停电损失,能够为提高配电网可靠性和社会应急电源分配、公共预防性预算分配等提供依据。采用产电比法计算停电损失,并使用熵权加权计算各影响因素的客观权重,以提高灰色关联分析方法评价结果的准确性。使用熵权加权–灰色关联分析方法,分别计算区域产电比与各行业、配电网可靠性与其影响因素之间的关联度。在实际案例分析中,对4个不同区域的停电损失与各行业的紧密程度和区域配网可靠性与各影响因素之间的关系进行分析,从而提出每个区域电网设备升级的重点方向和地域,集中供电企业资金投入,最大限度提高配电网可靠性,降低停电损失。

Outage loss is one of the indicators to measure the economics of the power grid.Reasonable estimation of outage loss can provide a basis for improving distribution network reliability,social emergency power distribution,and public preventive budget allocation.In order to improve the accuracy of the grey relational analysis method,the ratio of output value to unit electric energy consumption(ROVUE)is used to calculate the outage loss,and the objective weight of each influencing factor is obtained with the entropy weight method.By using the method of entropy Weight-Grey correlation analysis,the correlation degree between the regional ROVUE and each industry,and the correlation degree between the reliability of distribution network and its influencing factors are calculated,respectively.In the case study of four different regions,the correlation of regional outage loss and various industries as well as the relationship between regional distribution network reliability and various influencing factors are analyzed.Thus the key direction and focus area are proposed for each regional power grid to upgrade its equipment,so that the investment of power supply enterprises can be concentrated to maximize the reliability of the distribution network and reduce the power outage losses.