深圳0814号台风风暴潮数值模拟及最高潮位特征分析

Numerical simulation of the storm surge and characteristics of the highest tide level in Shenzhen caused by typhoon 0814

基于MIKE21-FM水动力模型,结合Holland台风模型和TPXO7.2全球潮汐模型,建立了风暴潮-天文潮耦合数学模型。根据0814号台风"黑格比"的最佳路径数据,模拟了该强台风在深圳引起的风暴潮过程,并对深圳沿岸最高潮位与对应岸段的警戒潮位进行对比分析。结果显示:深圳沿岸最高潮位普遍超出警戒潮位,其中前海湾以北珠江口岸段最高潮位超出红色警戒潮位,深圳湾岸段最高潮位高于橙色警戒潮位,大鹏湾湾顶西侧岸段最高潮位超黄色警戒潮位,仅大鹏半岛东南侧岸段最高潮位低于蓝色警戒潮位;深圳西部沿岸最高潮位明显高于东部沿岸;深圳珠江口岸段最高潮位沿珠江口伶仃洋纵深方向由南往北递增。

A storm surge-astronomical tide coupled model is established in this paper based on MIKE21-FM model, Holland typhoon model and TPXO7.2 global tide model. We then simulate the storm surge in Shenzhen caused by Typhoon NO. 0814"Hagupit"using its optimal track data, and compare the highest tide level with the corresponding warning water level along the coast of Shenzhen. The results show that the highest tide level is generally beyond the warning water level along the coast of Shenzhen. The highest tide level exceeds the red,orange and yellow warning water level north of Qianhai Bay, in Shenzhen Bay and west of the top bank of Dapeng Bay, respectively. The southeast cost of Dapeng Peninsula is the only area that the highest tide level is lower than the blue warning water level. Moreover, the highest water level along the west coast is significantly larger than that along the west coast of Shenzhen. The highest water level increases from the south to the north along the coast near Lingdingyang.