“一带一路”贸易关联网络及其包容性增长效应研究

The Belt and Road Trade-related Network and Its Inclusive Growth Effect

"一带一路"倡议提出的初衷是实现各国的共赢共享发展,那么沿线各国之间的经济合作是否能在促进各国经济增长的同时缩小彼此差距、实现包容性增长呢?基于"一带一路"沿线54个国家2006~2015年的贸易数据,借助引力模型和社会网络分析方法得到各国之间的经济合作网络结构特征,进而采用GMM模型对该问题进行研究。结果发现:在考察期内,"一带一路"贸易关联网络呈现出逐渐增强的趋势,中国、俄罗斯和土耳其等国家在网络中处于核心地位;"一带一路"沿线各国的经济合作能实现包容性增长,这与"一带一路"倡议提出的初衷一致。在合作网络中,接近中心度的影响作用最高,点度中心度次之,中介中心度排在最后,说明"一带一路"贸易关联网络的"直接联系"有着最显著的影响作用。

The original intention of the Belt and Road Initiatives is to achieve a win-win and shared development of all countries.Does economic cooperation between the countries along the Belt and Road really promote inclusive growth?This paper conducts an empirical study on this issue.Based on the trade data of 54 countries along the Belt and Road in 2006~2017,the gravitational model and social network analysis method are used to obtain the structural characteristics of economic cooperation network between the countries,and then the GMM method is used to test.The research results show that:(1) the Belt and Road trade-related network shows a trend of increasing.Russia,Turkey,China and other countries are at the core of the network;(2) the economic cooperation between countries along the Belt and Road can indeed achieve inclusive growth.It is consistent with the original intention of the Belt and Road Initiatives;(3) in the cooperative network,the proximity centrality has the highest impact,the degree center degree is the second,and the intermediary center degree is the last.This shows that the direct link of the Belt and Road trade related network has the most significant and prominent influence.This article is of great significance for better promoting the construction of the Belt and Road and promoting mutual benefit and win-win results among countries along the route.