全球价值链视角下中美增加值贸易与贸易失衡的测算

Estimation of Sino-US Value Added Trade and Trade Imbalance from the Perspective of Global Value Chain

基于全球价值链视角,采用多区域投入产出模型,利用世界投入产出表数据,测算了1995~2011年中美增加值出口和双边贸易失衡规模。研究表明:相比于传统贸易出口规模,1995年和2011年中国增加值出口分别减少16.06%和24.24%;传统贸易统计方法严重高估中美贸易失衡,同期中美制造业的增加值贸易顺差分别为传统贸易顺差的5%和10%,而中美农业贸易则由传统贸易逆差转变为增加值贸易顺差,中美服务业贸易则由传统贸易顺差转变为增加值贸易逆差;分要素密集度行业来看,中国劳动密集型和资本密集型行业表现为增加值贸易顺差,而知识密集型服务业则为逆差,且逆差规模逐步扩大。

Based on world input-output database,this paper measures the scale of China-US value-added exports and bilateral trade imbalances from 1995 to 2011 with the multi-regional input-output model from the perspective of global value chain.The results show that compared to traditional export scale,value-added export of China decreased by 16.06% and 24.24% respectively in 1995 and 2011.The traditional trade statistics seriously overestimated Sino-US trade imbalance.During the same period,Sino-US value-added trade surplus of manufacturing industry was 5% and 10% of traditional trade surplus,while agricultural trade changed from traditional trade deficit to value-added trade surplus,and services trade shifted from the traditional trade surplus to value-added trade deficit.From the perspective of factor intensive industry,Sino-US labor and capital-intensive industries showed value-added trade surplus,but knowledge-intensive service industries showed trade deficit,and the deficit scale has gradually expanded.