基于CMIP5模式和SDSM的抚河流域未来气候要素模拟与预估

Estimate of climate change in Fuhe River Basinbased on SDSM and CMIP5 model

为了解变化环境下的流域未来气候要素变化趋势,以抚河流域为研究对象,利用该流域两个气象站的1961—2005年水文逐日气温、降水和NCEP再分析数据等资料,建立了SDSM降尺度模型,并对未来的温度与降水研究。将模型应用于CanESM2模式下3种RCP排放情景,得到了流域未来气温与降水的变化趋势。结果表明SDSM模型对温度的模拟效果好于对降水的模拟效果,3种情景下未来温度总体呈现上升趋势,最低温度上升幅度高于平均温度和最高温度上升幅度;各情景下增温幅度2080s>2050s>2020s,2080s平均增温3.0℃;未来降水总体表现为减少趋势,局部表现为震荡趋势,减少主要集中在夏、秋季,其中5-6月降水减少量普遍较大,在30mm以上,而冬季降水量增幅在50~90mm;总体来说,抚河流域未来气温将持续上升,降水量呈现下降趋势,干旱形势严峻。

In order to understand the changing trend of future climate elements in the changing environment,Fuhe River Basin was taken as the research object,and the SDSM drop model was established by using the hydrological daily temperature,precipitation and NCEP reanalysis data of the two meteorological stations in the basin from 1961 to 2005.The model is applied to three RCP emission scenarios in CanESM2 model,and the trend of future temperature and precipitation in the basin is obtained.The results show that the SDSM model has better temperature simulation than precipitation.In the three scenarios,the future temperature takes on an overall rising trend.The lowest temperature rise is higher than the average temperature and the highest temperature.The temperature increase range is 2080s>2050s>2020s,2080s average.The temperature increase is 3.0°C;the overall performance of the future precipitation takes on a decreasing trend,and the local performance is a turbulent trend.The decrease will mainly occur during summer and autumn.The decrease of precipitation in May and June is generally larger than 30 mm,and the precipitation in winter increases by 50~90mm;Generally speaking,the future temperature in Fuhe River Basin will continue to rise,and the precipitation will take on a downward trend,and the drought situation will be severe.