福建省农业产值与农膜用量关系协整分析及展望

Co-Integration Analysis and Prospect of Relationship between Agricultural Output Value and Agricultural Film Consumption in Fujian Province

基于1990—2017年福建省农业产值、农膜使用量的时间序列数据,研究两变量之间的短期动态波动与长期均衡关系,对福建农业产值与农膜使用量的关系进行了协整分析及格兰杰因果检验,并构建了其短期动态特征的误差修正模型。研究结果表明,福建农业产值与农膜使用量之间存在协整关系,即两者之间存在长期稳定均衡关系;农业产值是农膜使用量的单向格兰杰原因,即农业产值的变化会引起农膜使用量的同向波动。最后,围绕福建农业未来发展从农业产值和农膜使用量等方面进行了展望。

Based on the time series data of agricultural output value and agricultural film use in Fujian province from 1990 to 2017,the relationship between short-term dynamic fluctuation and long-term equilibrium of the two variables was studied,the relationship between agricultural output value and agricultural film use in Fujian province was co-integrated and granger causality test was conducted,and the error correction model of its short-term dynamic characteristics was constructed.The results showed that there was a co-integration relationship between the agricultural output value and the amount of agricultural film in Fujian,and there was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the two indicators.Agricultural output value is the one-way granger reason of agricultural film usage,and the change of agricultural output value can cause the same direction fluctuation of agricultural film usage.Finally,the future development of agriculture in Fujian province was forecasted from the perspectives of agricultural output value and agricultural film consumption.