中国货币政策的经验性分析:从数量型调控向价格型调控演进

An Empirical Analysis of China’s Monetary Policy: Evolution from Quantity Control to Price Control

经济和金融新形势下,中国货币政策表现为数量型调控为主转向价格型调控为主的渐进过程。本文首先从货币政策制度、目标、工具和传导机制四个维度对转型时期中国货币政策进行经验性分析,然后对货币政策转型时点进行严格的统计推断,据此建立多个分段的货币政策方程进行实证检验。研究表明:中国货币政策存在明显的结构性差异,采用单个线性方程抽象较长时期的中国货币政策是不合宜的;数量型方程与价格型方程在结构性断点、回归结果和模型解释力上均存在较大差异,因而建立量价混合的货币政策方程更契合中国货币政策实践。总的来看,中国货币政策框架是多元的,数量型工具仍发挥重要作用,市场利率调控尚不成熟,货币政策转型一直在路上且任重而道远。

The transition of China’s monetary policy along with the new economic and financial situation is a gradual process with the target from a quantitative one to a price-based one. This paper firstly makes an empirical analysis of the Chinese monetary policy in the transition period from the four dimensions of monetary policy system, targets, tools and transmission mechanism, and then makes strict statistical inference on the point of monetary policy transition. Based on this, we establish multiple segmented monetary policy equations for empirical test. It shows that there are structural differences in China’s monetary policies, so it is inappropriate to use a single linear equation to abstract a long period of Chinese monetary policy;there are great differences between the quantitative equations and the price-based equations in structural breakpoints, regression result and model interpretation force, so establishing quantitative and price mixed monetary policy equations is more in line with the practice of China’s monetary policy. In sum, China’s monetary policy framework is diversified, quantitative tools still play an important role and market interest rate regulations are not mature, so the transformation of China’s monetary policy has been always on the way and has a long way to go.