基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的辽宁锦州地区地下水时空预测研究

Study on the prediction of groundwater time and space in jinzhou area of liaoning province based on the improved GM(1,1) model

以辽宁锦州地区为研究实例,对比分析改进前后GM(1,1)模型在区域地下水预测的精度。结果表明:改进的GM(1,1)模型可实现各量权重的动态设定,在年和月尺度的地下水预测精度相比传统模型均有明显改善,其中年均预测误差降低12.5%,月均预测误差降低11.8%,地下水空间分布预测结果也更符合区域实际情况。成果对于其他区域地下水预测具有重要的参考价值。

Taking Jinzhou area of Liaoning Province as an example,the accuracy of GM( 1,1) model in regional groundwater prediction before and after improvement is compared and analyzed.The results show that the improved GM( 1,1) model can realize the dynamic setting of the weight of each quantity.Compared with the traditional model,the annual and monthly prediction accuracy of groundwater is significantly improved,in which the annual average prediction error is reduced by12.5 %,the monthly average prediction error is reduced by 11.8 %,and the prediction results of groundwater spatial distribution are more in line with the actual situation of the region.The results have important reference value for groundwater prediction in other regions.