基于时空维度的水资源与经济匹配分析

Analysis of Water Resources and Economic Matching Based on Spatio-Temporal Dimensions

实现水资源在空间和经济发展的优化配置,使水资源环境与经济全面协调可持续发展,是人类追逐的长期目标,这需要系统分析与精准量化水资源分布与经济发展在时空上的匹配程度。以我国大陆地区31个省、市、自治区为例,选取2008~2017年的水资源总量及经济生产总值(GDP)数据,引入基尼系数、洛伦兹曲线和不平衡指数,分析结果表明,中国多年来水资源分布与经济发展的空间基尼系数均呈现出"极不匹配"的状态;洛伦兹曲线远离绝对平均线,中段各点连线的斜率较为平缓,接近绝对平均线的斜率,两端连线的斜率则远远偏离绝对平均线的斜率;四川、云南、广西、山东、江苏和西藏6个行政区的不平衡指数均高于全国平均水平,是造成我国水资源分布与经济发展不匹配的主要地区;基尼系数和不平衡指数在2017年大幅上涨,未来的水资源分布与经济发展的均衡性、公平性不容乐观。研究成果对于水资源优化配置、区域协调发展有借鉴意义。

Realizing the optimal allocation of water resources and economic development in space,making the water resources environment and economy comprehensive and sustainable development is the long-term goal of human pursuit.Therefore,it is necessary to systematically analyze and precisely quantify the spatial and temporal matching between water resources and economic development.Based on the total water resources and economic gross domestic product(GDP)of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2008 to 2017,the Gini coefficient,Lorenz curve and imbalance index were introduced.The results indicate that the spatial Gini coefficient of China’s water resources and economic development shows a"very mismatched"state for many years;The Lorenz curve is far from the absolute average line,and the slope of the connection point of the middle part is relatively flat.The slope of the connection between the two ends is far from the slope of the absolute average line;The imbalance indices of the six administrative regions of Sichuan,Yunnan,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,Shandong,Jiangsu and Tibet Autonomous Region are higher than the national average,and they are the main areas that cause imbalances in China’s water resources distribution and economic development;The Gini coefficient and imbalance index rose sharply in 2017,the equilibrium and fairness of spatial distribution of water resources will be reduced in the future.The research results has reference value for optimal allocation of water resources and regional coordinated development.