财政政策的经济增长效应研究——以安徽省为例

Research on the effect of financial policy on economic growth——Taking Anhui Province as an example

建立结构式向量自回归模型(SVAR),就财政政策对安徽省GDP增长率、就业人员增长率、居民最终消费增长率和固定资本形成增长率的影响进行分析.研究结果表明,财政收入对GDP增长率为负效应,对就业人员增长率短期为负效应但从长期来看为正效应,对居民最终消费增长率为正效应,对固定资本形成增长率为正效应;财政支出对GDP增长率为正效应,对就业人员增长率长期来看效应不大,对居民消费增长率为负效应,对固定资产形成增长率为负效应.政府应注重财政政策调整力度、支出规模和功能转移等方面,优化财政支出资金使用方向及支出结构.

Through the establishment of structural vector autoregressive mode(l SVAR),the influence of fiscal policy on GDP growth rate,employment growth rate,residents′final consumption growth rate and fixed asset formation growth rate in Anhui Province is analyzed.Results show that the fiscal revenue has a negative effect on GDP growth rate,has a negative effect on employment growth rate in short time and has positive influence on employment growth rate in the long term,has positive influence on residents′final consumption growth rate,has positive influence on fixed assets formed growth rate.The public finance expenditure has positive influence on GDP growth rate,doesn′t affect employment growth rate in the long term,has a negative effect on residents′final consumption growth rate,has a negative effect on fixed assets formed growth rate.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the adjustment of fiscal policy,the scale of expenditure and the transfer of functions,and optimize the direction and structure of expenditure.