大基地开发模式下的风资源评估方法探索

Exploration of wind resource assessment method under large-scale development mode

针对我国建设风电大基地的规划过程中现有软件对于大场址风资源模拟结果较差的现象,在预开发区域一年实测风数据的基础上,运用SPSS,Global mapper,Surfer等软件,采用地理空间因子的多元回归方法对风资源进行模拟,并应用现有数据对回归曲线进行验证,制作风场区域年平均风速风资源图谱,得出如下结论:新方法模拟的年平均风速分布与中尺度风资源分布在空间上是一致的;经过检验预测风速与实测年平均风速的差异较小在2%以内;提出的风资源评估的方法和相关理论分析及应用技术能够为当前风电大基地开发模式提供新的思路。

Aimed at the planning of building a large wind power base in China,and the existing software has a poor simulation result for large site wind resources.Based on the one-year measured wind data in the pre-development area,using the software of spss,Global mapper,surfer,etc.,the multivariate regression method of geospatial factor is used to simulate the wind resources,and the existing data is used to verify the regression curve and correct the residuals.,the annual average wind speed wind resource map of the wind field area is produced,and the following conclusions are drawn:the annual mean wind speed distribution simulated by the new method is spatially consistent with the distribution of mesoscale wind resources;after the test,the difference between the predicted wind speed and the measured annual average wind speed is less than 2%.The method and related theoretical analysis and application technology of wind resource assessment proposed in this paper can provide new ideas for the current wind power base development model.