摘要
提出了基于霍尔三维结构的堤防工程系统分析模型,建立了堤防工程设计施工运营全过程风险评估及管理的技术框架,阐明了风险分析中范围界定、风险因子识别及分析的工作要点,探讨了危险性分析中堤防失事破坏的3种原因,论述了适用于不同阶段的堤防溃决风险率计算方法及风险评估方法;并且针对不同阶段开展了堤防工程风险评价与效益分析,讨论了风险调控方案选择与对策实施及动态监测、信息反馈的技术流程与实施要点。拟定的堤防工程全过程风险评估及管理工作流程和技术方案有望在工程实践中逐步得到应用和发展完善。
A system analysis model for dike engineering based on Hall three-dimensional structure was proposed and a technical framework for risk assessment and management of dike engineering during the whole process of design-construction-operation was established.The scope definition in risk analysis,identification of risk factors and working key points in risk factors analysis were clarified.Three key reasons for dike-break in the risk analysis were addressed.The methods for calculating the risk rate and assessing the dike-break risk applicable to different stages were discussed.The risk evaluation and benefit analysis of dike engineering corresponding to different stages were analyzed.The technical processes and implementation points for solution selection and countermeasures for risk control,dynamic monitoring and information feedback were also discussed.The obtained workflows and technical solutions for risk assessment and management of the dike engineering during the whole process of design-construction-operation are expected to be gradually applied and developed in practice.
作者
蒋水华
黄中发
甘小艳
黄劲松
黄浩智
JIANG Shuihua;HUANG Zhongfa;GAN Xiaoyan;HUANG Jinsong;HUANG Haozhi(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Jiangxi Provincial Channel and Lake Administration,Nanchang 330009,China)
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期42-49,共8页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
江西省自然科学基金(2018ACB21017,20181ACB20008)
江西省水利厅科技项目(KT201534)。
关键词
堤防工程
溃决风险
风险率
全过程风险评估
风险管理
dike engineering
dike-break risk
risk rate
whole process risk assessment
risk management