堤防工程设计-施工-运营全过程风险评估与管理框架

Risk assessment and management framework for dike engineering during whole process of design-construction-operation

提出了基于霍尔三维结构的堤防工程系统分析模型,建立了堤防工程设计施工运营全过程风险评估及管理的技术框架,阐明了风险分析中范围界定、风险因子识别及分析的工作要点,探讨了危险性分析中堤防失事破坏的3种原因,论述了适用于不同阶段的堤防溃决风险率计算方法及风险评估方法;并且针对不同阶段开展了堤防工程风险评价与效益分析,讨论了风险调控方案选择与对策实施及动态监测、信息反馈的技术流程与实施要点。拟定的堤防工程全过程风险评估及管理工作流程和技术方案有望在工程实践中逐步得到应用和发展完善。

A system analysis model for dike engineering based on Hall three-dimensional structure was proposed and a technical framework for risk assessment and management of dike engineering during the whole process of design-construction-operation was established.The scope definition in risk analysis,identification of risk factors and working key points in risk factors analysis were clarified.Three key reasons for dike-break in the risk analysis were addressed.The methods for calculating the risk rate and assessing the dike-break risk applicable to different stages were discussed.The risk evaluation and benefit analysis of dike engineering corresponding to different stages were analyzed.The technical processes and implementation points for solution selection and countermeasures for risk control,dynamic monitoring and information feedback were also discussed.The obtained workflows and technical solutions for risk assessment and management of the dike engineering during the whole process of design-construction-operation are expected to be gradually applied and developed in practice.