面向微博谣言关注度的大数据时序特性分析

Analysis of Big Data Time-series Properties Characteristics for Microblog Rumor Confrontation

近年来,微博谣言因其传播速度快、扩散范围广、影响后果严重引起了公众广泛关注。网民对于微博谣言关注度程度随时间变化,关注侧重点漂移客观反映了微博谣言治理效果。因此,研究微博谣言关注度具有重要价值。以新浪微指数平台为大数据分析源,通过时序特性分析方法深度挖掘近5年网民对微博谣言关注度的时序特征。研究发现,微博谣言关注度时序是一个无明显趋势和周期的时间序列。5年中序列最大峰值出现时间与两高院出台惩治网络谣言相关《解释》的时间吻合;ARMA(1,2)模型可较好地拟合微博谣言关注度序列;手机端谣言关注度数量约为电脑端谣言关注度数量的2.8倍,前者是后者的格兰杰原因,且前者对后者的影响力为持续一周逐渐减小的正面冲击效应;网民关注的微博谣言热门信息主要集中于谣言惩罚的相关政策、重大突发事件中的媒体辟谣、明星向造谣者追究法律责任以及安全问题相关的辟谣榜4个方面。研究结果有助于掌握微博谣言关注度时序规律,从而为有效制定微博谣言抑制策略提供可靠依据。

Studying the relevant theories,techniques,and methods of microblog rumors confrontation is of great practical significance for maintaining social stability,national unity,and building a clear network environment.At present,the research in the field of rumors confrontation mainly focuses on the construction of microblog rumors suppression model and the simulation calculation of confrontation rules,however,the in-depth research on the true data of microblog rumors confrontation is very scarce.In this regard,the Sina micro-indicator platform is used as the source of big data analysis,and the time series feature analysis method is used to deeply mine the temporal characteristics of microblog rumors countermeasure data in the past five years.The study found that the time series of microblog rumors confrontation is a stable time series,with no obvious trends and cycles.The maximum peak of the sequence in 5 years coincides with the launch of the Explanation related to the two superior prosecutors.The ARMA(1,2)model can well fit the microblog rumors confrontation sequence.The number of rumors confrontation on mobile phones is about 2.8 times that on computers.The former is the Granger cause of the latter,and the influence of the former on the latter is a positive impact effect that gradually decreases for a week.The microblog rumors confrontation that netizens focus on includes four aspects,such as policies related to rumors confrontation,official denial in major emergencies,cognizance of legal responsibilities of celebrities to rumor mongers,and rumor lists related to security issues.The research results will help us to grasp the rules of microblog rumors confrontation series,and thus provide a reliable basis for developing the microblog rumors suppression strategies effectively.