基于贝叶斯网络推理的列车可靠性评估方法

Train Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Bayesian Network Reasoning

基于复杂网络理论建立了城市轨道列车的系统可靠性网络模型,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的系统可靠性评估方法。其中,为解决计算时不可量化的参数问题,提出了去权去方向化处理方法。对列车受电弓系统建模和计算结果表明,基于贝叶斯网络理论的系统可靠性评估方法可作为实用的建模和分析方法应用于城市轨道列车机械系统的可靠性分析。

Based on the complex network theory,a reliability network model of urban rail transit system is established,and a system reliability evaluation method based on Bayesian network reasoning is proposed. In which,to solve the problem of non quantifiable parameters in calculation,a method of decentralization is proposed. The modeling and calculation results of urban rail pantograph system show that the reliability evaluation method based on Bayesian network can be used as a practical modeling and the analytical method,which can be applied to the reliability analysis of urban rail train mechanical system.