上海市水资源承载力评价及预测

Evaluation and Forecast of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Shanghai

指出了水是维系人类生存和发展的重要资源,是人类可持续发展的重要基础。但干旱、洪涝、水资源污染、缺水等异常水资现象严重威胁社会的可持续发展。运用主成分分析法对上海市水资源承载力状况进行了研究,结果表明:①上海市2007~2016年水资源承载力总体呈现上升趋势,水环境也得到进一步优化。影响上海市水资源承载力的因子主要是人口因子和经济因子。②通过预测分析,根据上海市2035规划,至2035年常住人口控制在2500万人左右,年用水总量控制在138亿m^3,万元地区生产总值(GDP)用水量控制在22.5m^3以下,上海市水资源承载力可承载的经济活动的最大量为56354.25亿元。

Water is an important resource for human survival and development,and an important foundation for human sustainable development.But abnormal water resources such as drought,flood,water pollution,and water shortage seriously threaten the sustainable development of society.The principal component analysis method was used to study the source of Shanghai’s water resources carrying capacity,and the research showed that:①Shanghai’s water resources carrying capacity generally showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2016,and the water environment was further optimized.The factors affecting Shanghai’s water resources carrying capacity are mainly population factors and economic factors.②Through forecast analysis,according to Shanghai’s 2035 plan,by 2035 the resident population will be controlled at about 25 million people.The total annual water consumption will be controlled at 13.8 billion cubic meters,and the gross domestic product(GDP)water consumption per million yuan will be controlled at 22.5 cubic meters below.The maximum amount of economic activities that can be carried by Shanghai’s water resources carrying capacity is 5,535.425 billion yuan.