基于G1-Pull Up灰色关联分析的明渠安全评价

Safety comprehensive evaluation of diversion channels by grey relational analysis based on order relation analysis and pull up model

为了对我国西部地区众多引水明渠的安全状态进行合理地赋权及评价,构建了多指标参数的引水明渠运行安全影响因素指标体系,运用序关系分析(G1)和拉开档次法(Pull Up)分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,结合专家主观经验确定指标综合权重值,最后根据明渠工程的运行特点,选取灰色关联分析法的安全评价模型计算引水明渠的安全运行等级,并将该方法应用于引大入秦工程引水明渠工程中。结果表明:G1-Pull Up法对于指标权重的确定更加客观合理,既能满足所得权重的客观性,也能保证评估结果具有一定的解释性,同时能够减少单一权重计算的偏差;灰色关联分析评价模型对于引水明渠安全运行等级的确定较为有效,并得出其安全等级为较安全状态,与实际情况一致。研究证实了该模型对西部地区引水明渠安全评价的有效性和实用性,可以为明渠的安全管理提供重要依据。

In order to reasonably empower and evaluate the safety state of the open channel in western China, the influencing factors index system for the open channel operation with multi-index parameters was constructed. Firstly, the subjective weight and objective weight of each index were determined by order relation analysis and pull up model respectively, and then combined with the subjective experiences of experts, the index comprehensive weight value was determined. Finally, according to the operation characteristics of open channel projects, the safety evaluation model by grey relation analysis method was selected to calculate the safe operation grade of open channel, and this method was applied to the open channel operation state evaluation of Datong River-Qingwangchuan Water Diversion project. The evaluation result showed that this method is more objective and reasonable to determine the index weight, which can satisfy the objectivity of the obtained weight, ensure the interpretation of the evaluation result, and reduce the deviation of the single weight calculation. The grey correlation analysis and evaluation model was more effective for determining the safe operation grade of open channel, and it is concluded that the safety grade of open channel was relatively safe, which was consistent with the actual situation. The research result confirmed the validity and practicability of the model for the safety evaluation of open channel in western region, and can provide important basis for the safety management of open channel.