房价上涨如何影响工业企业加成率:事实与机制

How House Price Increasing Affects Firms’ Markups: Evidence and Theory

将"担保效应"和"挤出效应"纳入同一框架解释房价上涨对工业企业加成率的影响机制。在此基础上,根据中国工业企业数据对理论命题进行实证,研究结果为:总体上,房价上涨显著降低了中国工业企业加成率;分样本回归显示,民营、一线和热点二线城市、东部地区和资本密集型企业受房价上涨的负向"加成率效应"较强;作用渠道检验证实中国工业企业在房价上涨时整体上"担保效应"和"挤出效应"不显著,但企业出口产品质量和生产率显著下降,从价格和成本渠道分别降低了企业加成率;与房地产行业相关性和地区市场化指数显著影响企业的负向"加成率效应"。结论对"去库存"和提升工业企业竞争力政策协调具有参考意义。

This article introduces "collateral effects" and "crowding-out effects" into the same framework to explain the mechanism of the rising house prices’ impacts on industrial firms’ markups. On that basis, we conduct an empirical study on the theoretical propositions according to the Annual Survey Data of the Chinese Industrial Firms(ASIF). The results show that: in general, the increase of house price significantly reduces the Chinese industrial firms’ markups;subsample regression shows that private firms, Tier 1 and hot Tier 2 cities, eastern region and capital-intensive firms facing more negative markup effects. The check of the potential channels shows that the Chinese industrial firms have insignificant "collateral effects" and "crowding-out effects". The decrease of markup can be explained by the fall of export product quality and total factor productivity from the channel of price and cost. The correlation with the real estate industry and the regional marketization index significantly affect the negative markup effects. It has the reference significance to the policy coordination of "Destocking" and the promotion of industrial firms’ competitiveness.