基于贝叶斯算法对开车阶段LNG接收站风险的量化研究

Quantitative Research on Risk of LNG Receiving Station Start-up Stage Based on Bayesian Network

LNG作为最有潜力的清洁能源,在我国的市场需求日益旺盛。LNG接收站项目开车阶段风险较高,因此对LNG接收站项目开车阶段存在的风险源进行系统化梳理分析与管理十分必要。本文在梳理已有风险管理理论以及项目实际经验的基础上,结合LNG接收站项目开车阶段的特点,对已识别的LNG接收站项目开车阶段风险源运用基于故障树的贝叶斯网络法对风险源进行分析与评价,并提出了风险应对与监控措施。本文提出的LNG接收站项目开车阶段风险管理方法可为其他类似工程项目的风险管理提供借鉴。

As the most potential clean energy,LNG has an exuberant demandin our country.The risk of driving stage is higher,therefore,it is necessary to systematize the analysis and management of the risks existing in the start-up phase of the LNG receiving station project.On the basis of combing the theory of risk management and the practical experience of the project,combined with the characteristics of the start-up stage of the LNG receiving station project.The Bayesian network method based on fault tree are used to analyze and evaluate the risk,and the risk response and monitoring measures are determined.The risk management method in the start-up phase of the LNG receiving station project presented in this paper can also provide a reference for the risk management of other similar engineering projects.