成都市水生态足迹的时间分布特征及其影响因素

An analysis of time distribution characteristics of water ecological footprint and its influencing factors in Chengdu City

为了加强对成都市水资源可持续利用的规划与管理,运用水生态足迹计算模型分析成都市2000-2016年水生态足迹变化,并基于LMDI分解法分析成都市水生态足迹影响因素。结果显示,成都市水资源总量生态足迹逐年增大,2012年以后略有下降;农业用水在整个用水结构中占比最高,生态足迹最高;其次为工业用水、生活用水、生态用水占比。成都市2000-2016年水生态承载力先增大后降低,水生态盈余(赤字)逐年增大,万元GDP水生态足迹逐年下降,水资源负载指数逐年提高。说明成都市水资源利用程度高、利用效率高,但开发潜力小,水资源供给压力依然巨大。从影响因素的结构性分析来看,经济因素发挥主导作用,结构因素的抑制作用还未显现,人口因素的促进作用不够显著,技术因素的抑制作用显著。

In order to strengthen the planning and management of sustainable water resource utilization,this paper used the water ecological footprint calculation model to analyze the changes of water ecological footprint and the relevant influencing factors based on LMDI decomposition method from 2000 to 2016 in Chengdu,City.The result showed that the ecological footprint of total water resources in Chengdu has an upward trend with a decline after the year 2012.Agricultural water accounted for the highest proportion in the entire water structure and the highest ecological footprint;followed by industrial,domestic,and ecological water.The ecological water carrying capacity of Chengdu firstly showed an increase in trend while a decrease from 2000 to 2016.The ecological water deficit and the water resources load index increased year by year,whereas the ecological water footprint of 10,000 yuan GDP decreased year by year.It was illustrated that Chengdu has a high degree and high efficiency of water resource utilization.However,its development potential was small,and the pressure on water supply was huge.From the structural analysis of the interfering factors,economic factors play a leading role,and the inhibitory effect of structural elements has not yet appeared.Besides,the promotion of demographic factors was not significant,while the inhibition of technological elements was significant.