全国碳排放权交易市场模拟及价格风险

Trading Simulation and Price Risk Analysis for the National Carbon Cap-and-Trade in China

中国于2017年底正式启动全国碳排放权交易市场建设,电力行业是首批纳入全国碳交易体系的行业。为探索全国碳市场的交易情形和市场风险,本文构建了全国电力行业的碳排放交易模型,基于边际减排成本估计值,结合总量限额和初始分配情景分析,预测市场均衡价格和交易模式。研究发现,初始分配无论采用"祖父制"还是"基准法",均衡价格不变,且广东、浙江等东部发达地区将成为主要的碳配额购买地区,新疆、内蒙古等西部欠发达地区则是主要的销售地区。此外,碳配额的需求冲击会导致碳价格出现较大波动。考虑到中国电力定价尚未完全实现市场化,这种大波动可能由于电力产业链中成本无法顺利疏导,影响电力行业的平稳发展和碳市场的有效运行。在实现电力市场化改革之前,建立"碳-电价格联动机制"或许能有助于碳减排成本的疏导。

China’s national carbon cap-and-trade scheme(CTS) launched at the end of 2017 is an important market-based instrument to facilitate green and low carbon transition. The electricity sector is the first one involved in the CTS. This paper proposes a model to simulate the CTS for the power sector. Given national carbon mitigation targets and original allocations, the emitters will optimize the volume of emissions based on their marginal abatement costs. With the trading market, the mitigation targets would be achieved with the minimum total abatement costs. The findings indicate that no matter with "grandfathering" or "benchmarking" allocation, more developed eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang will play the roles of emission permits buyers, while less developed western provinces such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia will be the sellers in the market. Further discussions on the carbon price imply that demand shock is likely to result in significant carbon price volatility. Considering that electricity prices are highly regulated by the government in China, such high volatility of carbon price may affect the stability of power market and the effectiveness of carbon market. A carbon-electricity price linking mechanism can be taken into consideration to reduce the risk in the short-term.