河南省高效节水灌溉发展驱动因素分析及预测研究

Analysis of driving factors and area prediction for the development of high-efficient water-saving irrigation in Henan Province

为提高农业高效节水灌溉相关政策和规划的针对性和科学性,应用灰色系统理论,选择平均单位有效灌溉面积用水量、人均GDP、农业产业从业人员比例、总研发经费、有效灌溉面积、粮食总产量、农村居民家庭人均收入和农业总产值,作为河南省农业高效节水灌溉发展驱动因素进行分析,并对灌溉面积建模预测。灰色关联分析显示,高效节水灌溉发展是多种因素综合作用的结果,8个驱动因素与高效节水灌溉面积有较强的综合关联度。河南省高效节水灌溉与农业产业从业人员比例的综合关联度最高为0.848,与平均单位有效灌溉面积用水量的综合关联度最低为0.557。运用所建GM(1,1)模型预测,到2020、2025和2030年,河南省高效节水灌溉面积将分别达到1734.70×103、2653.25×103和4058.17×103 hm2。

In order to improve the pertinence and scientificity of relevant policies and plans of agricultural high-efficient water-saving irrigation,the driving factors of Henan agricultural efficient water saving irrigation development such as the grey system theory average unit effective irrigated area water consumption,per capita GDP,proportion of employees in agricultural industry,R&D expenditure,effective irrigated area,total grain output,per capita income of rural households and gross agricultural output value were analyzed,and models were established for area prediction.Grey correlation analysis showed that the development of high-efficient water-saving irrigation in Henan Province is the result of the comprehensive effect of various factors,and strong comprehensive correlation degree exists between 8 driving factors and high-efficient water-saving irrigation areas.The comprehensive correlation degree between high-efficient water-saving irrigation in Henan Province and proportion of employees in agricultural industry is the highest,which is 0.848,and that between high-efficient water-saving irrigation and the average unit effective irrigated area water consumption is the lowest,which is 0.557.Using the GM(1,1)model established,it is predicted that by 2020,2025 and 2030,the high-efficient water-saving irrigated area in Henan Province will reach 1734.70×103,2653.25×103 and 4058.17×103 hm2 respectively.