京津冀地区地面沉降研究进展与思考

The advance and consideration of land subsidence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

针对京津冀地区在经济快速发展的同时逐渐成为我国地面沉降灾害的重灾区的现状,该文分析了京津冀地区(北京、天津、河北)地面沉降多年研究成果,对地面沉降形成与发育历史、监测技术、影响因素及驱动机理、预测与风险评价进行探讨。京津冀地区地面沉降研究在基础理论和技术方法方面得到发展的同时,更加注重理论模型的探索和新技术新方法的实践。在对监测技术和实践应用成果分析基础上,认为区域地面沉降目前仍存在研究基础不足和研究能力薄弱现象并存的局面;在沉降监测中最优算法的选取,影响因素分析的综合化、定量化,模型的应用在未来有待于进一步探究。

In view of the current situation that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is becoming a serious disaster area of land subsidence disaster in China while the economy is developing rapidly,this paper analysed the research results of land subsidence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei) for many years,and discussed the formation and revolution history of land subsidence,monitoring technology,influencing factors and driving mechanism,prediction and risk assessment. The study of land subsidence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been developed in basic theory and technical methods,while paying more attention to the exploration of theoretical models and the practice of new technologies and new methods. Based on the analysis of monitoring technology and practical application results,there is still a situation of insufficient research foundation and weak research capacity coexisting in regional land subsidence. Based on the analysis of monitoring technology and practical application results,it is considered that there is still a situation of insufficient research foundation and weak research ability in regional land subsidence. The selection of optimal algorithm in subsidence monitoring,the synthesis and quantification of influencing factors analysis,and the application of artificial intelligence methods need to be further explored in the future.