平行进近偏航下Event碰撞风险模型

Collision risk of parallel approach in yaw based on event model

为了研究航空器平行进近偏航情况下偏航角度对碰撞风险的影响,利用Event模型和概率论理论,建立平行进近偏航碰撞风险模型;通过分析偏航时碰撞盒体型的变换,得到扩展碰撞盒截面随时间t以及偏航角α的变化特征;为方便推导碰撞风险的计算公式,引入碰撞概率比R,将其定义为变换后碰撞盒体积与原模型碰撞盒体积的比值;以北京首都机场外侧跑道平行进近偏航情况为例进行碰撞风险分析。结果表明:当给定飞机尺寸与跑道间隔时,偏航角度α在[0,90°]范围内增大,飞机对碰撞风险也增大;同时,仅当飞机进近偏航的角度小于32°时,2机之间的碰撞风险才能满足安全目标水平。

In order to study influence of yaw angle on collision risks between two aircraft in parallel approach yaw,a collision risk model of parallel approach in yaw was established by using Event model and probability theory.Then by analyzing transformation of the model's collision box,variation law of extended collision box section with time t and yaw angleαwas obtained.In the meantime,collision probability ratio R was introduced in order to deduce formula for risk calculation,and it was defined as the ratio of transformed collision box volume to that of original model.Finally,risk analysis was conducted with parallel approach yaw of runways outside Beijing Capital Airport as an example.The calculation results show that with given aircraft size and runway interval,collision risk will grow as yaw angle increases in the range of[0,90°].It can only meet safety target when yaw angle is smaller than 32°.