改进CRITIC修正G2-TOPSIS的钻孔自燃预测模型及应用

Prediction model of spontaneous combustion risk of extraction drilling based on improved CRITIC modified G2-TOPSIS method and its application

针对瓦斯抽采钻孔自燃危险评价系统模型中指标权重难以确定的问题,提出一种改进的基于指标相关性权重确定法(CRITIC)的G2赋权法。首先引入欧式距离函数,建立优化决策模型,采用CRITIC的“差异驱动”型赋权法修正“功能驱动”型G2赋权法;其次获得各指标综合权重,评价影响钻孔自燃危险因素的主次关系;再次基于逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)“驱动功能”的G2赋权法,建立G2-TOPSIS钻孔自燃危险评判模型;然后分析贴近度,预测钻孔自燃危险等级;最后将该模型应用于晋牛煤矿1303工作面瓦斯抽采钻孔。结果表明:煤氧化还原燃点温差为诱发钻孔自燃危险的主导因素;钻孔自燃危险等级为III级,预测结果与实际情况相吻合。

Considering it is difficult to determine index weight in evaluation model of spontaneous combustion risk of gas extraction drilling,an improved G2 weighting method based on CRITIC was proposed.Firstly,Euclidean distance function was introduced to establish an optimal decision-making model and CRITIC's"differential-driven"type weighting method was used to modify"function-driven"G2 weighting method.Secondly,comprehensive weight of each index was obtained,and primary and secondary relationship of risk factors that influence drilling spontaneous combustion was evaluated.Then G2-TOPSIS extraction drilling self-ignition risk assessment model was constructed based on TOPSIS"driving function"G2 weighting method,degree of closeness was analyzed,and risk level was predicted.Finally,this model was applied to gas extraction drilling of 1303 working face in Jinniu Coal Mine.The results show that temperature difference of coal oxidation-reduction ignition point was the dominant factor for extraction drilling spontaneous combustion which is rated as Class III,and prediction results of this model are consistent with actual situation.