成品油管道周边区域社会风险分析

Societal risk analysis for vicinity of product oil pipelines

为合理规划管道周边区域,将人员伤害风险控制在可接受范围内,首先建立成品油管道社会风险计算模型,该模型给出潜在生命损失(PLL)和F-N曲线的计算步骤;其次采用修正基准失效频率的方法计算管道失效频率;然后利用基于区块的人口统计方法,在管道失效频率、危害后果计算分析和人口数量统计的基础上,计算各类事故的发生概率和可能造成的死亡人数;最后构建F-N曲线并计算PLL。结果表明:管道中孔和破裂失效由于泄漏流量大,引燃概率高成为人员伤害风险来源。该模型可应用于成品油管道社会风险计算和管道周边区域人口分布规划。

For the sake of reasonable planning and control of casualties risk within acceptable limit in vicinity of pipelines,a societal risk calculation model was established in which procedures to calculate potential loss of life and construct F-N curve were illustrated.Secondly,pipeline failure frequency was calculated by using modification of basic frequency.Then occurrence frequency of different types of accidents caused were calculated on the basis of pipeline failure frequency,hazardous consequence calculation and analysis and population statistics through a block-based demographic method.In the end,F-N curve was constructed and potential loss of life was calculated.The results show that risk of personal injuries was caused by medium and rupture leaks due to large release flow and high ignition probability.This model can be applied in societal risk calculation of product oil pipelines and population distribution planning for the vicinity of pipelines.