有钱而游,还是因梦而旅?——预期收入对旅游消费决策的作用机制研究

Do you Travel for Money or for Your Dreams?--Research on the Mechanism of“Expected Income”on Tourism Consumption Decision-making

主流经济学的消费理论认为收入决定消费,因此收入是影响旅游消费决策的重要研究变量,但先行研究一直存在广泛争论,且较少进行跨期研究,特别是预期收入对旅游消费决策的影响研究更为稀少。文章主要目的是研究预期收入对个体旅游消费决策的影响作用机制,引入行为经济学的体验效用理论,构建旅游者跨期效用函数模型,检验和比较分析了当期收入和预期收入对个体旅游消费决策的影响力度。研究结果如下:第一,当期收入对旅游消费决策的作用会受到个体预期收入和不耐心程度(个体更偏好于当前消费而非未来消费)的调节效应影响;第二,给定其他因素的作用,预期收入对未来旅游消费决策具有正向促进作用,且预期收入对旅游消费决策的正向影响要高于当期收入的影响。另外还发现,女性群体的不耐心程度调节效应相对更大,低龄群体的不耐心程度调节效应较大,显著性也较高。最后,文章提出了以上研究结果对旅游体验和旅游消费决策的行为经济学理论拓展意义,以及对旅游企业和目的地进行预期营销的实践意义。

Mainstream economics and consumption theory argue that income determines consumption,and income is also an important variable affecting tourism consumption decision-making research,but there is little inter-temporal study on this relationship,ignoring the important effect of"expectations"on tourism consumption decision-making.From the perspective of behavioral economics,the consumers’decision-making often deviates from the rational assumptions of mainstream economics and obeying the rule of"emotional decisions"in behavioral economics.Therefore,this study analyzes the impact of expected income on tourism consumption decision-making from the perspective of individual income,which extends the study of tourism consumption decision to the field of economics,puts forward the theoretical model of tourism income(current and expected)utility function and tourism consumption decision on the basis of the experience utility theory of behavioral economics,and fills the research gap of the effect of expected effect on tourism consumption decision.Furthermore,it verifies the hypothesis of the model by using the cross-period large sample data at the national level in China,and demonstrates data collection,model variables and research methods.Our results indicated that the tourism consumption decisions not only depend on tourists’current income,but also on their expectations of future income.Firstly,expected income would have a positive effect on prospective tourism consumption decision-making,and the positive impact of expected income on tourism consumption decision-making was higher than that of current income;secondly,the effect of current income on tourism consumption decision-making would be affected by the moderating effect of individual expected income and"impatience"(individuals prefer current consumption rather than future consumption).What’s more,it was found that the moderating effect of"impatience"was greater in female group,and it was higher and more significant in the case of in younger groups.This study has the following theoretical implications.Firstly,this paper expanded the research field of traditional tourism rational consumption decision-making on the basis of behavioral economics theory.Secondly,this paper innovatively proposedδ("impatience")for the study of tourism consumption decision-making,and put it into the model as a moderating variable of the effect relationship of current income on tourism consumption decision-making.Thirdly,through the regression of large sample of micro-data,this paper made a detailed comparative analysis of the impact of expected income and current income on tourism consumption decision-making,confirmed the theoretical hypothesis that expected income had a more significant effect on tourism decision-making,and an econometric method to measure individual"impatience"was found.What’s more,the results of this study also have important practical significance.First of all,this study verified that expected income had a more significant and direct impact on the decision-making of tourism consumption compared with current income,which provides a new theoretical guidance for tourism authorities to promote tourism development and improve the number of tourists in various regions.Secondly,the model of tourism inter-temporal income utility function proposed in this study can help tourism enterprises and tourism destinations more efficiently predict the growth or decline of the number of tourists and carry out accurate marketing.