我国供水用水的时空特征研究及政策建议

Research on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Water Supply and Water Use in China and Policy Suggestions

水是人类生存和发展的基础,供水用水情况影响社会经济的可持续发展。基于《中国统计年鉴》中2005—2018年供水用水数据,运用SPSS中的回归分析及聚类分析,辅以分布图系分析法,分析我国供水用水时空特征。结果表明:时间上,地表水供水对供水总量影响最大,农业、工业、生活、生态用水按影响程度由大到小依次影响用水总量;空间上,部分地区水资源紧缺,总体上农业用水占比最大,通过层次聚类分析,29个主要地区供水情况分为3类,用水情况分为4类,分类情况符合我国地理特征与气候条件。基于此,建议制定并落实水资源管理红线制度,优化用水结构,完善水资源横向生态补偿机制,实现社会与生态的协同可持续发展。

Water is the basis for human survival and development,water supply and water use conditions affect the sustainable development of society and economy.Based on the data of water supply and water use in 2005—2018 in China Statistical Yearbook,the regression analysis and cluster analysis in SPSS and the distribution map analysis method were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of water supply and water use in China.The results show that in time aspect the surface water supply has maximum impact on total water supply.The agricultural,industrial,living and ecological water use affect the total water consumption from large to small.In space aspect,some regions are in extremely water shortage,in all agricultural water accounts for the largest proportion.Through hierarchical cluster analysis,the water supply in 29 mainregions is divided into three categories and water use is divided into four categories,which is in line with China′s geographical characteristics and climatic conditions.Based on this,it is recommended to formulate and implement the red line system for water resources management,optimize the water structure,improve the horizontal ecological compensation mechanism for water resources,and achieve the coordinated and sustainable development of society and ecology.