中部崛起政策对地区产业升级的异质性影响与机制分析--基于PSM-DID方法的一项拟自然实验

Heterogeneity and Mechanism Analysis of the Impact of Central China Development Policy on Region Industrial Upgrading --A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on PSM-DID Method

国家中部崛起政策实施13年来,相关地区的经济发展和产业结构发生不同程度的变化。为进一步引导发展,需对这一政策的实施效果作整体评估和检验。基于1999-2013年我国201个地级市的面板数据,运用PSM-DID方法,从长期影响角度评估中部崛起政策实施效果。结果表明,以地区技术复杂度度量的产业结构得到了显著的提升。在此基础上考察中国式财政分权模式下政府财政行为波动对政策效果的影响,结果显示政府财政支出波动对地区产业升级会起到负面作用。进一步的机制检验表明,吸引外商直接投资、积极性政府财政政策、突破路径依赖是实现政策效果的中介变量;政策着力点主要在高技术水平的产业上;由于地区异质性的存在,部分省份产业升级并未达到预期效果。因此,制定新一轮崛起战略措施时,要因地制宜,充分考虑地区异质性,走内涵式发展道路。

This paper investigates the effectiveness of Central China Development Policy on industrial upgrading in the central region. It examines the effect of the policy implementation in the central region from the perspective of the long-term by propensity score matching and difference-in-difference method. The results show that the industrial structure measured by regional export technology structure has been improved apparently, which is robust to various estimations. Meanwhile we examined closely the economic effect of the behavior of the local government in China’s style of decentralization from the angle of the industrial structure, the results show that the fluctuation of government fiscal expenditure will have a negative effect on regional industrial upgrading. Further the mechanism test at different levels show that attracting foreign direct investment, positive government fiscal policy and breaking path dependence are the intermediary variables to realize the policy effect;the focus of the policy is mainly on the high-tech industry;the impact of the strategy has typical regional heterogeneity, the industrial upgrading of some provinces has not been reached to policy goals. Therefore, the above results have effective implementation of the new round of the Central China Development Policy and improving quality of policy in this "new normal" economy.