政策脱轨效应:评估环境政策的新框架

Policy Derail Effect: A New Evaluation Framework for Environmental Policies

目前我国尚未形成统一的环境政策评估规范体系,而对具体环境政策进行评估时,可能会因不同领域、不同视角、不同评估方法而带来不同的评估结果。针对现有环境政策评估体系存在的局限性,提出可以客观评估环境政策实施效果的框架:政策脱轨效应。从政策脱轨效应的定义、产生原因、分类及评估思路四个方面构建理论体系,同时根据脱轨效应理论框架分析我国不同时期的环境政策。该框架体系的基本特点是:将不同环境政策的评估统一到同一体系之下,以特定的模型和方法,评估环境政策实施是否存在"脱轨效应"。研究表明,环境政策实施后存在发生政策脱轨效应的可能性;消费品之间的替代(或互补)关系、单位环境效益和单位产量排污因子均会影响政策脱轨效应的产生;从脱轨效应角度分析,环境政策制定时的决策目标会影响政策实施效果,只有当环境政策以社会净福利为决策目标时,政策实施才可能避免出现政策脱轨效应,实现环境保护和经济增长的双重红利。

Taking into account the limitations of the existing environmental policy assessment system, this paper proposes a new framework--policy derail effect(PDE) that can objectively assess the effect of environmental policy implementation. In this paper, we construct the theoretical system from four aspects: the definition, causes, classification and estimation of PDE, and analyze China’s environmental policy in different periods based on the policy derail effect. The feature of the framework system is to unify the assessment of different environmental policies into the same system, and use specific models and methods to assess whether there is a "derail effect" in the implementation of environmental policies. The results show that there is a possibility that derail effect occurs after policy implementation. The substitution(or complement) relation among consumer goods, per unit of environmental benefits and emission factors of unit output all affect the policy derailment effect. From the perspective of PDE, the goal of environmental policies also affects the policy implementation effect. Only if the aim of environmental policies is to maximize the social net benefits, namely, taking the negative externality of environmental pollution into account, the policy derail effect may be avoided.