1980-2015年济南市土地利用景观格局时空演变与模拟预测

Temporal-Spatial Evolution and Simulation Prediction of Land Use and Landscape Patterns in Jinan City from 1980 to 2015

基于1980-2015年济南市的土地利用数据,计算该市土地利用类型数量转移、景观空间格局演变,并对演变结果进行驱动因素分析;基于2015年该市各土地利用类型的模拟结果,采用Markov模型和基于地理模拟优化系统的未来土地利用模拟模型对2020年该市土地利用景观格局进行分情景预测。结果表明:1980-2015年济南市土地利用-覆被变化经历由缓慢变化到急剧变化的过程,景观格局朝着破碎化、复杂化、异质化的方向发展;人口与经济综合因素是土地利用变化的主要驱动因素;在历史趋势发展情景下,2020年济南市土地利用景观格局将更加破碎,但在基本农田保护情景下,景观格局破碎化的趋势将得到控制,同时生态保护情景下的生态景观的丰富度与均匀性得到提高。

Based on the land use data of Jinan city from 1980 to 2015, the quantity transfer of land use types and the evolution of landscape spatial patterns were, and the driving factors of the evolution results were analyzed. Based on the simulation results of various land use types in 2015, Markov model and future land use simulation model based on geographical simulation and optimization system(GeoSOS-FLUS) were selected to make sub-scenario prediction of land use landscape pattern of the city in 2020. The results show that the land use-cover change(LUCC) of Jinan city has undergone a process of slow-drastic change from 1980 to 2015, and the landscape patterns have tended to be fragmented, complicated and heterogeneous, and the combined factors of population and economy are the main driving factors of land use evolution. Under the historical trend development scenario, the landscape pattern of land use in Jinan will be more fragmented in 2020, but under the basic farmland protection scenario, the trend of landscape pattern fragmentation will be controlled, and the richness and uniformity of ecological landscape under the ecological protection scenario will be improved.