拥挤感知降低情况下的展会经济效应——以中国(寿光)蔬菜科技博览会为例

Exploration on the Economic Effect of the Exhibition under the Reducing Spectators’Crowded Perception

以中国(寿光)蔬菜科技博览会为研究对象,从物理拥挤感知和社交拥挤感知两个维度出发,构建展会观众拥挤感知降低情况下的观展需求模型。通过合并显示性偏好和陈述性偏好的方式对展会观众进行问卷调查,分析在四种降低拥挤感知的方案中展会观众的观展需求变化情况,并采用面板数据中的随机效应模型进行数据分析,探究观展需求改变下的消费者剩余变化情况。以此作为展会资源价值和展会经济效应的依据。研究表明,注重对展会观众拥挤感知把控是提高展会经济效应的有效方式,无论是降低展会观众的物理拥挤感知还是社交拥挤感知对于观展需求变化均能产生正面影响,展会观众对于寿光“菜博会”拥挤感知越弱,则其对于该展会的观展需求越强、消费者剩余更大;表明展会价值越高,为展会带来的经济效应越大。在两个降低展会观众拥挤感知的维度中,降低展会观众社交拥挤感知相较于降低展会观众物理拥挤感知能够带来的经济效应更加显著。

Taking the International Vegetable Science and Technology Expo Of China(Shou Guang)as the research object,this paper starts with the two dimensions of physical congestion perception and social congestion perception to build a exhibition demand model under the condition of reduced crowded perception of the exhibition Spectators.By way of combination of the revealed preference and the stated preference for the exhibition Spectators,the questionnaire is desogned to analyse the changes of the exhibition demand under the four plans that could decrease the crowded perception,and use the panel data of the random effects model for data analysis to explore the exhibition demand changes under the change of the consumer surplus,which is shown as the basis of resources value and economic effect.The study has shown that it’s an effective way to improve the economic effect of exhibition to pay attention to control the spectators,crowded perception.Both the reduction of exhibition spectators'physical congestion perception and the social congestion perception can have a positive impact on the change of the exhibition demand.The weaker the exhibition audiences’perception of crowding in the exhibition,the stronger their exhibition demand and the larger consumer surplus,which indicates that the exhibition has higher value and greater economic effect.Comparing the two dimensions reducing exhibition spectators’social congestion perception has more significant economic effect than reducing exhibition spectators’physical congestion perception.