基于电取暖设备热力工况的电负荷精准预测模型研究及应用

Study and application on accurate forecasting model of power load based on thermal conditions of power-heat equipment

随着我国北方地区冬季清洁取暖"煤改电"的大面积推广,对电网的增容改造以及"迎峰度冬"安全运行带来了较大的压力。在总结分析不同类型电取暖设备的基础上,提出了一种基于设备热力工况、建筑类型以及室外气候条件的电取暖负荷精准预测模型;并分别在电网接入、运行调节等典型场景下进行了应用分析。结果表明,该方法在电网投资改造以及优化运行方面有较好的指导作用。

The large-scale promotion of"coal to electricity"for clean heating in winter in northern China brings great pressure on the capacity upgrading of power grid and the safe operation in"peak load during winter". Based on the summary and analysis of different types of electric heating equipment, an accurate prediction model of electric heating load based on thermal conditions of equipment, building types and outdoor climate conditions is proposed.And the application analysis is carried out in typical scenarios such as grid access, operation regulation and so on. The results show that this method plays a good guiding role in the investmenttransformation and optimal operation of power grid.