中央调剂金制度对养老保险基金可持续性和财政负担的影响研究——对31个省(自治区、直辖市)的考察

The Impact of the Central Adjustment Fund System on the Sustainability and Financial Burden of Pension Insurance Funds--A Survey of 31 Provinces(Autonomous Regions and Municipalities)

2018年中国实施城镇职工基本养老保险中央调剂金制度,这标志养老保险向全国统筹更迈进一步,那么该项制度能否缓解各省(自治区、直辖市)养老保险基金支付压力和政府的财政压力?文章以全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究对象,假定当期以3%的上解比例实施养老保险基金中央调剂制度,建立精算模型观察政策实施前后各省养老保险基金运行情况,得出主要结论:(1)该制度能够改善23个省(自治区、直辖市)基金当期结余赤字问题、使政府财政负担下降20.33%,再分配效果明显;(2)当上解比例升至3.5%和4%,财政负担分别下降23.65%和26.97%,说明在一定范围内上解比例越高,财政负担下降幅度越大。由此提出建议:(1)继续坚持实行和完善养老保险基金中央调剂制度;(2)建立各省政府的责任激励机制,平衡各省之间的利益;(3)建立个性化养老保险基金中央调剂制度。

China have implemented the central adjustment fund system of basic endowment insurance for urban workers in 2018.This signifies that China s endowment insurance has taken a step closer to national overall planning.Whether the system can alleviate the payment pressure of endowment insurance funds and the financial pressure of the government in all provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government).This article takes 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)as the research object,which assumed that the central transfer system of pension funds will be implemented at a 3%resolution ratio and an actuarial model was established to observe the operational aspect of pension funds in each province in the respective period of the policy implementation.These main conclusions are drawn after comparative analysis:(1)The central adjustment system can improve the fund balance deficit of 23 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)in the current period and reduce the financial burden of the government by 20.33%,it makes the redistribution effect more obvious.(2)When the proportion of resolving the problem increased to 3.5%and 4%,the financial burden fell by 23.65%and 26.97%respectively,indicating that the higher the proportion of the upper solution is in a certain range,the greater the reduction of the financial burden is.This leads to the following recommendations:(1)We should continue to implement and improve the central adjustment system of endowment insurance fund.(2)Establishing the responsibility incentive mechanism of each provincial government to balance the interests between the provinces.(3)Establishing centralized transfer system for individualized pension funds.