昌吉回族自治州经济-旅游-生态环境耦合协调发展初探

A preliminary study of coupling coordination development of the economy-tourism-ecological environment of Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture

以昌吉回族自治州为研究区,运用耦合协调模型与GM(1,1)预测模型等分析其经济、旅游、生态环境3大系统的耦合协调关系.结果表明,2007-2016年3大系统综合评价指数总体呈上升趋势,除个别年份外,经济与旅游业的发展大体存在一致性;2007-2016年3大系统耦合协调度类型主要有旅游超前发展型与经济超前发展型;各县市3大系统耦合协调度在时间尺度上以波动上升为主,在空间尺度上大致呈现"从中部向两边递减"的空间格局;除部分县市外,未来几年内该区3大系统的耦合协调度总体呈小幅上升趋势.

Taking Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture as the study area, analyzing the coupling and coordination relationship of the three systems used the coupling coordination model and GM(1,1)prediction model.The study shows that,from 2007 to 2016,the comprehensive evaluation index of the three major systems of Changji showed an overall upward trend.Except for some abnormal years,the development of economy and tourism was generally consistent.The types of coupling coordination degree among the three major systems of Changji from 2007 to 2016 mainly include two types,tourism-advanced development and economic-advance development.From a time perspective,coupling coordinative degree experienced stable or fluctuant ascent.On the a spatial scale,the coupling coordinative degree presented a high level in the central area while a low level in surrounding area.The paper predicted that coupling coordinative degree in the whole region will present a slow ascent in the following few years except a few individual regions.